EIA: The 2026 refinery decline does not measure electrification

The EIA reported that global crude oil refinery inputs fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026 and partially rebounded in the third. The analysis, based on Kpler data, links the initial contraction to the start of the conflict in the Middle East in late February and attributes part of the recovery to changes in trade flows. EIA: Global refinery activity

However, this figure does not measure electricity consumption and does not allow us to conclude that electrification has increased or decreased. It refers to one stage in oil processing: the amount of crude oil received by refineries. It therefore provides information about refining and disruptions to it, but is not in itself an indicator of the transition from fossil fuels to electric uses.

What fell and how much recovered

In the second quarter of 2026, global crude oil refinery inputs declined by 4.8 million barrels per day (b/d), or 6%, according to the EIA. In the third quarter, they increased by 1.8 million b/d, mainly because refineries in the region adjusted to new trade flows. Even with this rebound, the third-quarter average was about 5% below the level recorded in the same period of 2025. EIA: Global refinery activity

A comparison with the seasonal pattern helps put the decline in context: crude oil inputs normally increase in the second and third quarters, when some scheduled maintenance ends and refineries prepare for seasonal demand for products such as gasoline and aviation fuel. In 2025, global volumes rose by 0.3 million b/d in the second quarter and a further 2 million b/d in the third. The 2026 contraction therefore occurred at a time when volumes usually grow, although the seasonal pattern alone does not explain all the causes of the change.

Regional changes were not uniform. China recorded a decline of 2.1 million b/d in the second quarter of 2026 and a further reduction of 0.8 million b/d in the third. In India, South Korea, and Japan, combined inputs fell by more than 1.0 million b/d in the second quarter and then rebounded by 0.8 million b/d in the third. The EIA also noted declines in Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and a combined increase of 0.4 million b/d in those four countries during the third quarter. EIA: Global refinery activity

Supply disruptions and differences between countries

The EIA links the largest declines in some countries to the loss of crude oil supply associated with the conflict and restrictions on flows through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the article, closure of the strait significantly limited exports of refined products. Later, increased flows through the strait, alternative routes, and transfers of crude oil between ships contributed to more Middle Eastern oil becoming available on the global market and to the partial recovery in refinery inputs. EIA: Global refinery activity

Russia followed a different trajectory: its crude oil refinery inputs declined by 0.6 million b/d in the second quarter and by a further 0.8 million b/d in the third. According to the EIA, attacks on Russian oil infrastructure reduced refining activity. Since Russia is a major exporter of fuels, particularly diesel, the decline in exports affected global diesel markets that were already tight because of earlier geopolitical events. The agency adds that the loss of refining activity contributed to nominal diesel prices reaching their highest recorded levels in September. EIA: Global refinery activity

By contrast, U.S. refinery inputs increased by 0.5 million b/d in each of the two quarters. The EIA links this increase to the availability of alternative supply sources and an increase in U.S. exports of refined products to offset some of the lost supply. These differences show why the global aggregate should not be interpreted as a uniform change across all countries.

What this adds—and does not add—to the electrification debate

The connection to electrification is indirect. Refining turns crude oil into products such as gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, while electrification involves using electricity in activities that may also depend on fuels. As context on the United States, the EIA notes that electricity is used in public transportation systems and electric vehicles. It also reports that petroleum products accounted for about 89% of U.S. transportation energy consumption in 2025. These figures relate to distinct energy uses and do not allow us to infer from refinery inputs in 2026 how much electricity demand changed. EIA: Transportation energy sources

The EIA also describes electricity uses across sectors, such as lighting, heating, cooling, machinery, and public transportation. Its reference indicates that total U.S. electricity consumption was around 4.20 trillion kWh in 2025. That figure concerns electricity and a different indicator: it is not a direct comparison with the global volume of crude oil processed, nor does it corroborate the causes of the decline. EIA: Uses of electricity

Thus, the report documents a contraction and partial recovery in refining activity, along with regional differences and effects on the diesel market. It does not demonstrate progress or a setback in electrification. Assessing that process would require specific data on electricity use and fuel substitution in the relevant sectors. The contextual references describe U.S. energy and electricity consumption; they do not establish a global electrification trend in 2026.

The primary source attributes its analysis to Kpler data; the references on electricity and transportation provide context, not independent corroboration of the finding about refineries.