Key ideas
- The EIA reports that gasoline yield averaged less than 45% between January and August 2026 and was below the low for the previous five years in every month.
- Distillate fuel yields exceeded the average for the previous five years in every month; jet fuel yield remained at 12% or higher between March and August 2026.
- The EIA links the change to high margins and limited global supplies of distillates and jet fuel; the electricity context data do not show that electrification caused it.
A shift in refinery product mix
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that during 2026, the country’s refineries reduced gasoline yield and increased the relative production of distillates and jet fuel. The analysis is based on the Petroleum Supply Monthly, with data through August 2026. The EIA notes that particularly high refining margins for distillates and aviation fuel have contributed to these changes, amid limited global supplies of those fuels. (EIA: change in refinery yields
A refinery’s yield expresses what proportion of the products obtained consists of a given fuel for each barrel of crude oil processed. It is not, by itself, equivalent to the total amount produced: that also depends on the volume of crude oil processed. According to the EIA, the U.S. refinery fleet typically obtains between 45% and 50% gasoline per barrel of crude oil; gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel together typically account for between 85% and 90% of the fleet’s petroleum products. (EIA: change in refinery yields
What the figures through August 2026 show
Between January and August 2026, gasoline yield averaged less than 45% and was below the low for the previous five years in every month. The EIA primarily links the trend to refineries’ efforts to shift some of their production toward fuels with higher margins.
By contrast, distillate fuel yields were generally higher than the previous year’s and exceeded the average for the previous five years in every month of the period described. The EIA links high distillate margins to global supply constraints. In this analysis, middle distillates refers to products grouped by their cut points during refining; the products highlighted are distillate fuel and jet fuel. (EIA: change in refinery yields
Jet fuel yield was also relatively high. In March 2026, the U.S. fleet exceeded an average yield of 12% for that fuel for the first time. It remained at 12% or higher through August, the last month included in the data cited by the EIA.
| Product | Trend described by the EIA | Period or reference |
|---|---|---|
| Gasoline | Average below 45%; below the low for the previous five years in every month | January–August 2026 |
| Distillate fuel | Above the average for the previous five years in every month | January–August 2026 |
| Jet fuel | Average yield of 12% or higher | March–August 2026 |
These figures compare refinery yields, not shares of final consumption. The products have different uses in transportation: motor gasoline is used in cars, motorcycles, light trucks, and watercraft; distillate fuels, primarily in trucks, buses, trains, and ships; and jet fuel, in jet aircraft and some helicopters. (EIA: transportation energy sources)
Electrification and consumption: context, not an explanation for the change
The change reported by the EIA concerns the composition of products obtained by refineries, not a general replacement of fuels with electricity. Electricity is used in public transportation and electric vehicles, but the available data on its consumption do not establish whether electrification caused variations in gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel yields.
In 2025, petroleum products accounted for about 89% of transportation energy consumption in the United States. In that same sector, gasoline—excluding ethanol—accounted for 52% of energy consumption; distillate fuels, primarily diesel and excluding biofuels blended with diesel, 22%; and jet fuel, 13%. The EIA indicates that electricity used by public transportation systems accounted for less than 1% of the sector’s total energy consumption that year. These are transportation consumption figures for 2025, not refining yields for 2026. (EIA: transportation energy sources)
Electricity also has important uses outside transportation, including in buildings and industry. The EIA reports that total U.S. electricity consumption was approximately 4.20 trillion kWh in 2025 and describes different uses by sector. This context shows the broad reach of electricity in the economy, but it does not verify or explain the change observed at refineries. (EIA: uses of electricity)
Scope of the information
The EIA attributes the change in yields in part to high refining margins for distillates and jet fuel, associated with global supply constraints. The cited data describe the months through August 2026: they do not establish whether the trend continued afterward or describe the year as a whole. Nor do they, by themselves, quantify the change in total production, since yield is a proportion relative to the crude oil processed.
The references on electricity consumption and uses provide context for electrification and consumption, but concern different measures and periods. They do not independently corroborate the EIA’s finding on refinery yields.
What we know and its limits
The EIA analysis uses data from the Petroleum Supply Monthly through August 2026, so it does not describe the full year or subsequent developments. Refinery yields are not equivalent to final consumption or, by themselves, to total production. The figures on electricity consumption and uses provide context, but they do not independently verify the change in yields or establish that electrification caused it.
Follow the evidence
The original sources for exploring this explanation and its limits.